Understanding retirement in the UK: an empirical analysis.

Like most OECD countries, the UK has experienced a long-term trend towards earlier Etirement, beginning in the 1970s, a trend that has only recently been reversed. The aim of this thesis is to shed light on these trends. Chapters 1-3 consider the nature of retirement. Economic models typically assume that retirement is voluntary, discrete and irreversible, and synonymous with drawing a pension, and this has been the dominant pattern for men in the UK. But there is a large minority, typically those with low wealth, for whom the path to retirement is through unemployment or long-term sickness and for whom unemployment and disability benefits provide alternative early retirement vehicles. Analysis of retirement expectations show that shocks to health and to marital status cause retirement plans and outcomes to diverge. The distinction between "voluntary" and "involuntary" retirements is important in understanding the well-documented fall in spending that occurs after retirement (the "retirement- consumption puzzle"). Spending falls significantly only when retirement is involuntary, a finding that is consistent with a negative wealth shock arising from involuntary early retirement lying behind the puzzle. Chapters 4-6 explore the responsiveness of the labour supply of older workers to incentives in state and private pensions. Pens ion wealth and accrual are shown to have significant effects on retirement, at least for the state pension and for defined benefit occupational pensions. However, early evidence suggests that wealth in defined contribution schemes does not have the expected positive effect on retirement, a finding that is consistent with their greater flexibility. The labour supply of older workers is also shown to be affected by earnings tests the removal of such a test in the UK is estimated to increase average weekly hours by three - four hours for men and two hours for women

Identification of clinical phenotypes in knee osteoarthritis: a systematic review of the literature

Background: Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a heterogeneous pathology characterized by a complex and multifactorial nature. It has been hypothesised that these differences are due to the existence of underlying phenotypes representing different mechanisms of the disease.Methods: The aim of this study is to identify the current evidence for the existence of groups of variables which point towards the existence of distinct clinical phenotypes in the KOA population. A systematic literature search in PubMed was conducted. Only original articles were selected if they aimed to identify phenotypes of patients aged 18 years or older with KOA. The methodological quality of the studies was independently assessed by two reviewers and qualitative synthesis of the evidence was performed. Strong evidence for existence of specific phenotypes was considered present if the phenotype was supported by at least two high-quality studies.Results: A total of 24 studies were included. Through qualitative synthesis of evidence, six main sets of variables proposing the existence of six phenotypes were identified: 1) chronic pain in which central mechanisms (e.g. central sensitisation) are prominent; 2) inflammatory (high levels of inflammatory biomarkers); 3) metabolic syndrome (high prevalence of obesity, diabetes and other metabolic disturbances); 4) Bone and cartilage metabolism (alteration in local tissue metabolism); 5) mechanical overload characterised primarily by varus malalignment and medial compartment disease; and 6) minimal joint disease characterised as minor clinical symptoms with slow progression over time.Conclusions: This study identified six distinct groups of variables which should be explored in attempts to better define clinical phenotypes in the KOA population

Minimum Particle Size for Cyclone Dust Separator

Perkins technology wish to separate small soot particles from exhaust gases, and the question posed to the study group was to determine the feasibility of using a cyclone separator to remove these particles. Soot is mostly composed of polycyclicaromatic compounds and results from the incomplete combustion of the diesel fuel in the engine. The average size of the particles formed in the engine is in the range 3 to 10 nm in diameter, but this is known to increase within the exhaust system. In the first part of this report we determine the minimum particle size that can be removed by centrifugal separation. The second part discusses the mechanisms for particle growth within the exhaust system in order to estimate the particle growth rate. In section two we estimate the minimum particle diameter that can be removed by a cyclone separator is around one micron. This estimate is consistent with current applications of hydrocyclones. The particle size measurements by Perkins Technology together with our estimates from section three, suggest that the soot particles are an order of magnitude smaller than this. Although it may be possible to remove some particles less than one micron in diameter with a well designed high-speed cyclone, we do not think it will be possible to remove a substantial proportion of 100 nm or smaller particles. The growth rate of the particles increases if the particles volume fraction or the polydispersity is increased. Therefore aggregation could be enhanced by the addition of larger particles (d > 1 µm) or water droplets (provided the water does not all vapourise) to the exhaust gas

KINENATIC ANALYSIS OF U . S . DECATHLETE SHOT PUT PERFORMANCE

NI

Inventory of ammonia emissions from UK agriculture 2009

The National Ammonia Reduction Strategy Evaluation System (NARSES) model (spreadsheet version) was used to estimate ammonia (NH3) emissions from UK agriculture for the year 2009. Year-specific livestock numbers and fertiliser N use were added for 2009 and revised for previous years. The estimate for 2009 was 231.8 kt NH3, representing a 2.3 kt increase from the previously submitted estimate for 2008. Backward and forward projections using the 2009 model structure gave estimates of 317, 245 and 244 kt NH3 for the years 1990, 2010 and 2020, respectively. This inventory reports emission from livestock agriculture and from nitrogen fertilisers applied to agricultural land. There are a number of other minor sources reported as ‘agriculture’ in the total UK emission inventory, including horses not kept on agricultural holdings, emissions from composting and domestic fertiliser use

Intensified array camera imaging of solid surface combustion aboard the NASA Learjet

An intensified array camera was used to image weakly luminous flames spreading over thermally thin paper samples in a low gravity environment aboard the NASA-Lewis Learjet. The aircraft offers 10 to 20 sec of reduced gravity during execution of a Keplerian trajectory and allows the use of instrumentation that is delicate or requires higher electrical power than is available in drop towers. The intensified array camera is a charge intensified device type that responds to light between 400 and 900 nm and has a minimum sensitivity of 10(exp 6) footcandles. The paper sample, either ashless filter paper or a lab wiper, burns inside a sealed chamber which is filled with 21, 18, or 15 pct. oxygen in nitrogen at one atmosphere. The camera views the edge of the paper and its output is recorded on videotape. Flame positions are measured every 0.1 sec to calculate flame spread rates. Comparisons with drop tower data indicate that the flame shapes and spread rates are affected by the residual g level in the aircraft

Simplified methods of assessing the impact of grid frequency dynamics upon generating plants

The frequency of the national electricity grid is affected by fluctuations in supply and demand, and so continually "judders" in an essentially unpredictable fashion around 50 Hz. At present such perturbations do not seemingly affect Nuclear Electric as most of their plant is run at more or less constant load, but they would like to be able to offer the national grid a mode of operation in which they "followed" the grid frequency: i.e., as the frequency rose above or fell below 50 Hz, the plant's output would be adjusted so as to tend to restore the frequency to 50 Hz. The aim is to maintain grid frequency within 0.2 Hz of its notional value. Such a mode of operation, however, would cause a certain amount of damage to plant components owing to the consequent continual changes in temperature and pressure within them. Nuclear Electric currently have complex computational models of how plants will behave under these conditions, which allows them to compute plant data (e.g., reactor temperatures) from given grid frequency data. One approach to damage assessment would require several years'-worth of real grid data to be fed into this model and the corresponding damage computed (via "cycle distributions" created by their damage experts). The results of this analysis would demonstrate one of three possibilities: the damage may be acceptable under all reasonable operating conditions; or it may be acceptable except in the case of an exceptional abrupt change in grid frequency (caused by power transmission line failure, or another power station suddenly going off-line, for instance), in which case some kind of backup supply (e.g., gas boilers) would be required; or it may simply be unacceptable. However, their current model runs in approximately real time, making it inappropriate for such a large amount of data: our problem was to suggest alternative approaches. Specifically, we were asked the following questions: - Can component damage be reliably estimated directly from cycle distributions of grid frequency? i.e., are there maps from frequency cycle distributions to plant parameter cycle distributions? - Can a simple model of plant dynamics be used to assess the potential for such maps? - What methods can be used to select representative samples of grid frequency behaviour? - What weightings should be applied to the selections? - Is it possible to construct a "cycle transform" (Fourier transform) which will capture the essential features of grid frequency and which can then be inverted to generate simulated frequency transients? We did not consider this last question, other than to say "probably not". We were supplied with data of the actual grid frequency measurements for the evening of 29/7/95, and the corresponding plant responses (obtained using Nuclear Electric's current computational model). A simplified nonlinear mathematical model of the plant was also provided. Two main approaches were considered: statistical prediction and analytical modelling via a reduction of the simplified plant model